Solar electricity to represent a quarter of all production by 2050, IEA predicts

11 May 2010

Solar electricity may represent up to 25 per cent of global electricity production by 2050 with the combination of photovoltaics (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) offering considerable prospects for enhancing energy security, according to the International Energy Association (IEA).

The forecast, which is based two new analyses by the IEA, the solar PV and CSP roadmaps, was accompanied by a prediction that PV on residential and commercial buildings will achieve grid parity by 2020 in many regions.

Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the IEA, said, ‘The combination of solar photovoltaics and concentrating solar power offers considerable prospects for enhancing energy security while reducing energy-related CO2 emissions by almost six billion tonnes per year by 2050.’

The roadmaps detail the technology milestones that will make this possible, highlighting that the two technologies will deploy in different yet complementary ways. The reports said PV power will be mostly used for on-grid distributed generation in many regions while CSP will largely provide dispatchable electricity at utility-scale from regions with brightest sun and clearest skies.

‘This decade is crucial for effective policies to enable the development of solar electricity,’ Tanaka said.

‘Long-term oriented, predictable solar-specific incentives are needed to sustain early deployment and bring both technologies to competitiveness in the most suitable locations and times.’

The IEA said it expects CSP to become competitive for peak and mid-peak loads by 2020 in the sunniest places if appropriate policies are adopted.

Meanwhile, PV will become competitive at utility-scale in the sunniest regions by 2030 and provide five per cent of global electricity. It said grid operators and utilities will need to develop new technologies and strategies to integrate large amounts of PV into flexible, efficient smart grids.

By 2050, the IEA said, it may provide more than 11 per cent of the world’s electricity supply.

The further expansion of CSP, it said, will depend on the development of dedicated transport lines that will bring CSP electricity to a greater number of large consumption centres.

These centres of consumption will have to be developed within large countries such as China, India and the US while others will need to cross-borders with a definite need to link the southern and northern shores of the Mediterranean Sea.

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This story was published on Tuesday, May 11th, 2010 at 5:24 pm and is filed under Africa, Asia, Australasia, Europe, Latin America, Middle East, North America, companies, knowledge, solar, solar. You can follow any responses to article entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.

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